Seven finishers across two tracker views. Solid = moving, dashed gaps = stopped. Your plan on the bottom row.
217 miles, 34,805 ft. Overall speed is the finish line; riding speed backs the stops out. Stops read off the traces — treat as ±1h, and only where the tracker was continuous.
| Rider | Finish | Stopped | Riding | Riding speed | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Caughey | 30h42 | — | — | not readable | 7.1 mph |
| Jeff Kerkove | 35h | ~2h | ~33h | 6.6 mph | 6.2 mph |
| Chris Fisher | 49h | ~7h | ~42h | 5.2 mph | 4.4 mph |
| Yuki Ikeda | 49h42 | — | — | not readable | 4.4 mph |
| Nora Fierman | 53h | ~17h | ~36h | 6.0 mph | 4.1 mph |
| Chris Joice | 53h | ~13h | ~40h | 5.4 mph | 4.1 mph |
| Jesse Harodetsky | ~56h30 | — | — | not readable | 3.8 mph |
| You — planned | 57h19 | 12h28 | 43h36 | 5.0 mph | 3.8 mph |
Why three rows say "not readable." Caughey, Ikeda and Harodetsky's traces each contain vertical jumps — 40 to 80 miles gained in essentially zero elapsed time, which is physically impossible. Those are InReach dropouts, and the long plateaus sitting next to them are the same gaps seen from the other side. Harodetsky's trace would imply 31 hours stopped and 25 hours riding at 8.7 mph; it simply isn't real data. Their finish times are solid. Their stop patterns are not, and averaging them in would poison the comparison.
What this means for the plan. Your projected riding pace of 5.0 mph sits inside the range of every clean finisher (5.2 / 5.4 / 6.0). You are not slow — you are budgeting 12h28 off the bike, which lands between Fisher's 7h and Joice's 13h. Trim toward Fisher and the same legs finish near 51 hours. That is the entire lever, and it is a kitchen-timer problem, not a fitness one.
Your own rides. Ratio = elapsed hours per unit of course work, where work = miles ÷ 10 + feet ÷ 2,000. Lower is faster.
| Recon ride | Course | Elapsed | Ratio | Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Breck epic stage 1 Sat 11 Jul 26, 1:20pm | 38.1 mi 5,501 ft | 5:32:23 mov 4:49:35 | 0.84 | full course |
| S2 | Segment 2 co trail Sun 12 Jul 26, 9:57am | 42.2 mi 5,807 ft | 7:14:24 mov 5:56:21 | 1.02 | full course |
| S3 | Morning Ride — full Guyot Sun 9 Aug 26, 4:35am | 40.3 mi 6,181 ft | 7:31:38 mov 6:22:44 | 1.06 | full course · pre-dawn, new Outbound bar light · 51 PRs |
| S4 | Aqueduct 2 Tue 15 Jul 26, 7:28pm | 23.6 mi 3,625 ft | 3:39:44 mov 3:16:57 | 0.88 | ~half, at night |
| S5 | Wheeler Sun 20 Jul 25 | 28.2 mi 5,110 ft | 7:02:40 mov 5:44:18 | 1.31 | 20 Jul 25 · bulk of the course, last 5–8 mi not ridden · the basis for the 7h45 |
| S6 | Stage 6 Sat 1 Nov 25, 1:14pm | 34.8 mi 4,448 ft | 6:03:03 mov 5:30:47 | 1.06 | LAST Nov, half under snow, completion uncertain |
Last year, same courses — for comparison. You've taken roughly 15% off across the board.
| 2025 ride | When | Course | Elapsed | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn Creek | Sat 2 Aug 25 | 40.9 mi / 5,634 ft | 6:52:13 | 0.99 |
| CO trail | Sun 3 Aug 25, 3:58am | 41.0 mi / 5,757 ft | 7:11:58 | 1.03 |
| Aqueduct | Sun 27 Jul 25 | 41.0 mi / 5,955 ft | 8:22:45 | 1.18 |
| Wheeler | Sun 20 Jul 25 | 28.2 mi / 5,110 ft | 7:02:40 | 1.31 |
What I used — base ratio from your recon, times a fatigue factor for riding them back to back.
| Stage | Base ratio | Fatigue | Projected | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 Pennsylvania Creek | 0.850 | ×1.00 | 5:27 | measured |
| Stage 2 The Colorado Trail | 1.000 | ×1.06 | 7:59 | measured |
| Stage 3 Mt. Guyot | 1.060 | ×1.06 | 8:32 | measured |
| Stage 4 Aqueduct | 0.880 | ×1.16 | 7:37 | measured |
| Stage 5 Wheeler | — | — | 7:45 | your call |
| Stage 6 The Gold Dust Trail | — | — | 6:15 | your call |
Guyot is measured, not modelled. The 9 Aug full-course ride — 40.3 mi, 6,182 ft, 7:31:38 elapsed — gives a ratio of 1.058. Gold Dust remains an estimate — the only reference is a November ride with half the course under snow, so it is the one stage without a clean summer lap behind it.
Worth noting from that ride: 6h22 moving against 7h31 elapsed — 69 minutes stopped, on a solo recon with no aid stations and nothing to fix. Hour-plus stops are the realistic planning figure, not thirty minutes.
Chronological. This is the whole evidence base the projections above are built on.
| Date | Ride | Stage | Distance | Climbing | Elapsed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 season | ||||||
| Sun 20 Jul 25 | Wheeler | S5 | 28.2 mi | 5,110 ft | 7:02:40 | Bulk of the course — last 5–8 mi not ridden |
| Sun 27 Jul 25 | Aqueduct | S4 | 41.0 mi | 5,955 ft | 8:22:45 | Full course |
| Sat 2 Aug 25 | Penn Creek | S1 | 40.9 mi | 5,634 ft | 6:52:13 | Full course · first of a back-to-back block |
| Sun 3 Aug 25 | Colorado Trail | S2 | 41.0 mi | 5,757 ft | 7:11:58 | Full course · 3:58am start, day two of the block |
| Sun 3 Aug 25 | Mt. Guyot (partial) | S3 | — | — | — | Night ride, same block — partial, no clean split |
| Sat 1 Nov 25 | Gold Dust | S6 | 34.8 mi | 4,448 ft | 6:03:03 | Half the course under snow · completion uncertain |
| 2026 season | ||||||
| Sat 11 Jul 26 | Breck Epic stage 1 | S1 | 38.1 mi | 5,501 ft | 5:32:23 | Full course · 1:20pm start |
| Sun 12 Jul 26 | Segment 2 CO Trail | S2 | 42.2 mi | 5,807 ft | 7:14:24 | Full course · 9:57am start |
| Sun 12 Jul 26 | Mt. Guyot (partial) | S3 | — | — | — | Night ride, same weekend — partial |
| Tue 15 Jul 26 | Aqueduct 2 | S4 | 23.6 mi | 3,625 ft | 3:39:44 | ~Half the course, at night · 7:28pm start |
| Thu 16 Jul 26 | Wheeler-distance, pre-dawn | S5 | — | — | — | Logged as a Wheeler-distance effort — not a clean course lap |
| Sun 9 Aug 26 | Morning Ride — full Guyot | S3 | 40.3 mi | 6,181 ft | 7:31:38 | Full course · 4:35am, new Outbound bar light · 51 PRs |
Two stages still have no clean summer lap behind them. Wheeler was last ridden properly in July 2025 and left unfinished by 5–8 miles; Gold Dust has only the November snow ride. Those are the two projections carrying your own estimate rather than a measured ratio — and they are also the last two stages of the route, ridden on the worst legs.
Every house stop is the same list. The only thing that changes between them is where, which is what the timeline tracks.
Ice rink is the exception: crewed by Lindy, no bike wash, no cooking. 45 minutes, not 75.
This is a solo ITT, not the Mega Epic — which changes the support picture. Registered Mega riders may use Epic's aid stations. You are riding the same 217 miles independently, so assume no course support at all: no aid stations, no water drops, no feed zones. Your resupply is exactly three points — the house twice, the ice rink once — plus streams. That makes the Sawyer core equipment rather than a backup, and it means every past finisher below had a materially easier day than the one drawn here.
One practical consequence: stage 3 has three aid stations across 40.5 miles and stage 4 has three across 42.3. Riding those dry on a 0.8 L bottle means the filter comes out several times per stage. Worth knowing your water sources on Guyot and Aqueduct before Wednesday — that's map work, not riding, so it costs the taper nothing.
Assumptions: house stops 1h15, ice rink 45m, sleep blocks 4h down inside 5h45 of stop; transfers 8–15m each (1:15 total, all real pedaling that appears in no stage total); full dark 8:35 PM–5:45 AM; horizon drawn to 70h.
Sensitivity: if you ride to your moving times rather than elapsed — i.e. barely stop on course — this comes in nearer 54h. If Guyot goes badly, add an hour and you're still inside 58. The plan is no longer fragile.